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It also considered the cost of renewable energy alternatives in each country. Reserves were defined as the coal, oil and gas that was economic to extract in 2018, before the coronavirus pandemic. That being said, at current consumption, we have by some accounts an estimated 47 years of oil left to be extracted. That equates to somewhere in the region of 1.65 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves.
Other statistics on the topicOil industry worldwide
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This is important to understand as it will help us honestly address whether or not oil will ever run out. It is highly likely that something equally as innovative will be devised in the future, so long as consumer demand remains high enough. Plants are a little simpler as so long as we have access to viable seeds, we could, theoretically, bring a species back from the dead. Don’t fret though, it will take many trillions of years for Earth to completely “evaporate” at this rate. Theoretically, we could recover it all in the future if we wanted to. We’ve been doing it for as long as our species has existed, and will continue to do so into the distant future.
Until such time as we can do this, however, we will need to make do with what we have here on Earth. Thankfully, we humans have a great knack for getting better at doing things over time. That’s because the rate at which we can locate and extract oil is not static. As we find the easiest reserves to extract, options for new discoveries dwindle.
In other words, the oil can be pulled out, but any company doing it will likely lose money doing so — making it pointless. It is also important to note that global proven reserves have increased over time. This, as we previously touched upon, is mainly a consequence of improved technology and extraction methods that have made previously unexploitable oil reserves economically and physically viable for extraction. Costly and highly polluting reserves, such as Canada’s tar sands and Venezuelan oil, are left in the ground in the model. In order to project how much time we have left before the world runs out of oil, gas, and coal, one method is measuring the R/P ratios — that is the ratio of reserves to current rates of production.
List of countries by proven oil reserves
The Earth also losses mass over time too — mostly from its “leaky” atmosphere. The Earth’s how much oil is left in the world enormous mass does a great job of keeping a thin veil of gas around its crust, but it is not perfect. Earth, and other planets, act like giant kinds of vacuum cleaners as they travel around the cosmos. Asteroids, space dust, and the odd comet all get “eaten” by Earth over time.
History of Global Oil Consumption
Estimates vary, but if our current consumption continues apace, we may well see a time in the near future when it is completely exhausted. The proportions of unextractable reserves produced by the analysis are much higher than for a related analysis in 2015. This reflects a reduction of the temperature target from 2C to 1.5C and the fast falling costs of renewables and electric vehicles, with the latter set to significantly cut oil demand. In fact, looking at the historical trend of the world’s reserve-to-production ratio since 1980, we are actually at one of our most abundant times in terms of proved reserves. As technology continues to improve, both governments and oil & gas companies will be able to access new reserves — some that can’t currently be exploited and others that are still unidentified. Fossil fuels are the main source of energy in the world, powering much of modern civilization as we know it, from transportation to industrial applications.
- Lighter elements like hydrogen, helium, and oxygen are continually escaping into space.
- If successful, this could “ease” the pressure on raw materials needed to make rockets.
- The main thing to understand is that resources are only really as limited as our imagination.
- Furthermore, scientists estimate that oil and gas production must decline globally by 3% each year until 2050 to meet this goal.
- This, as we previously touched upon, is mainly a consequence of improved technology and extraction methods that have made previously unexploitable oil reserves economically and physically viable for extraction.
- Another avenue to explore is to recycle somehow or reuse existing oil-derived products.
When you divide proved reserves by total production, you get the reserves-to-production ratio. This is where the 53-year estimate comes from and where that 32-year estimate originated in 1981. While the number is easy to understand, it’s a red herring because it assumes production will remain constant forever and that the current proved reserves estimates represent all the oil left. Back then the world consumed just under 60 million barrels per day, and global proved reserves for oil stood at almost 700 billion barrels.
While Earth-derived material is “lost” in a sense when fired off into space in the form of probes, even the stuff on those could be recovered in the future if we put our minds to it. For most of the time that humans have been able to extract and refine it, gold has mostly been used as jewelry or as a means of exchange. With the advent of the electronics age, however, gold was found to also be a fantastic electrical conductor. Of course, this “space stuff” is also by definition limited, but it is such an enormous quantity that it is, effectively, infinite.
- For all the will in the world, humans cannot predict the future and have a history of making things worse by tinkering with highly complex systems like global trade.
- For every product and service, you can think of; the oil will be involved somehow in the supply chain.
- Or would they be more likely to display it, perhaps, contain it in vials and wear it as jewelry?
- This is only the tip of the iceberg, though, because these projections don’t include technically recoverable resources that are not yet deemed economical at today’s prices.
- This is obviously dependent, as we previously stated, on the oil extraction methods and technology.
- Pedantic perhaps, but always bear in mind that raw resources are only ever changed in form, not destroyed when we use them — from the perspective of the conservation of mass.
- If society and technology haven’t changed enough to make a complete switch away from oil by the time this happens, the effects will be enormous.
History of World’s Proven Oil Reserves
While it may never technically run out, it will become so scarce at some point that it will be, effectively, depleted. We’ve covered a lot of ground above, and hopefully, you will better understand the size and scale that crude oil plays in our everyday lives. And this, according to the BBC, is exactly what one UK-based company is currently attempting to achieve. Called Recylkcing Technologies, the company is currently developing a machine that can generally treat unrecyclable plastics back into a liquid oil form.
World Oil Reserves
A 2016 study published in Nature Climate Change assessed what would happen if we burned all the fossil fuels known to exist on Earth. Oil companies discover the large, easily exploited oil fields first and then move onto smaller, deeper oil fields when the large ones decline. Another avenue to explore is to recycle somehow or reuse existing oil-derived products. Since there is a substantial potential treasure trove of source material in landfills, this could prove to be a very useful way of still sort of using oil without needing to extract the “virgin” crude oil. While still in their infancy, biofuels or synthetic fuels can be used as direct replacements for oil-derived fuels with little or no conversion of an internal combustion engine. But, from a resource supply point of view, biofuels are, theoretically, at least, never-ending.
Live Science is part of Future US Inc, an international media group and leading digital publisher. Hannah Osborne is the planet Earth and animals editor at Live Science. Prior to Live Science, she worked for several years at Newsweek as the science editor.
Some statistics on this page are disputed and controversial—different sources (OPEC, CIA World Factbook, oil companies) give different figures. Different estimates may or may not include oil shale, mined oil sands or natural gas liquids. This is a complex question is no straight answer because the availability and consumption of fossil fuel reserves are in constant flux. But the quick answer is that not too soon, as the goalpost has been constantly moving.